We hear it all the time. Buyers want to Buy but they are frustrated. Stuck. Mired in a market that doesn’t seem to be on the same page as their desire to buy. And Sellers want to Sell but they can’t quite pull the trigger and put their houses on because they can’t figure out exactly where they are going or how they are going to get there.
The knot in the Mobius loop of supply gets tighter and tighter when Sellers insist on having a roof over their heads after they sell (unless they have gone on to their final resting place). In order to get it, they have to become Buyers in a market where there isn’t much worth buying.
We could offer up the suggestion that more Sellers could rent after they Sell. But that’s pretty much of a non-starter for folks who’ve owned their own homes for awhile. And if there’s anything more disappointing than the number of homes to buy out there – it’s the number of places available to rent.
So we arrive at the Static Quo of our current Status Quo. Where the Quid No Quo of Low Inventory begetting Low Inventory doesn’t offer up many easy solutions.
Let’s dig in and continue the discussion. If you want to catch up on previous columns leading up to this one, go to firstname.lastname@example.org (the print is a bigger there too!)
Right now there are plenty of people talking about Low Inventory. But very few are talking about “The Why” of low inventory. What’s causing it? Perhaps it’s time to start outing a few of the factors contributing to the mix. Rounding up a list of likely suspects.
Here’s an initial list of some of the lesser characters involved in aiding and abetting low inventory. We’ll call them “accessories to the time”. The hotline is open for any additional tips you’d like to call in.
Prop 13: The cap on annual property tax increases acts as a deterrent to selling in a market where prices are rising.
Capital Gains Exemption of $250K/$500K for Singles/Couples: Many longtime residents are over this cap and the tax consequences have ironically become a disincentive for some to sell homes
Rule Governing Step-ups in Tax Basis: Act as encouragement for many married sellers to stay in their homes until one or the other to passes away before a move makes practical financial sense.
Sustained Low Interest Rates: Act as encouragement for homeowners and investors to hold on to the real estate they’ve already purchased at incredibly low rates
The list will get longer next week. Then we’ll spend more time examining it in greater detail. It’s a complicated mix of interrelated factors and underlying causes but I won’t leave you hanging.