Sound of the Market’s One Hand Clapping?


Wow, time flies!   Congratulations everyone, we’ve officially made it past the halfway point of the 2017 market. Let’s take a moment to check-in and initiate a quick, mid-year update on the state of real estate in Santa Cruz County.

Let’s imagine we’ve all been given the special power to become bugs on the walls of all the open houses that will be happening out there this weekend. That way, we can secretly listen in to what people are saying about the market.

If the bug analogy doesn’t work for you, let’s pretend that the internet of things has given us a special eavesdropping device that uses those newfangled NEST home network systems to hack into the ambient noises of the marketplace.

What kinds of things can we expect to hear on the street and in the privacy of those homes this weekend?

The first sounds we’ll hear are the resounding echoes of Tuesday’s article in the Sentinel. A bold-font piece announcing Santa Cruz County’s new all-time median price high. The trailing data just arrived and the midpoint of all single family homes sales in May rose to a whopiing  $870,000 –  $40k  higher than the median we logged in April.

But wait… there’s another noise that’s ratcheting up the decibel levels. Those are bells and whistles accompanying the average price data for the month of May. That number was a wildly unexpected and unprecedented $982,670!  Maestro, cue the fireworks.

And yes,  there’s a loud gasp coming from folks who never imagined they’d be able to say they live in a place where the average home price is almost a million dollars!  While some of the jubilation is dulled by audible groans from old-timers who aren’t happy about the way Santa Cruz is changing and who worry that their kids will never be able to afford to live here. (And who incidentally don’t think they’ll ever move from their current home.)

All modulated of course by excessive lip-licking on the part of those planning to put their homes on the market in the near future.  Who are certain they’ve timed the market perfectly.  Not to mention the contented sighs of home hobbyists who keep mental calculators handy to compute their equity each time median and average prices change. (Somehow the future feels better when your house is earning the equivalent of free airline miles each month).

Meanwhile, there’s a low rumbling noise in the distance that’s getting louder by the minute. That’s all the grumbling resonating around the City Council’s recent public input session about our housing crisis.  And if you can pick out a few high-pitched shouts above the din, those are rants coming from people getting out their frustrations on the public Facebook forum about local rents.  And that constant murmur weaving through it all?  That’s the ongoing discussion about limiting Air B&B’s and other short term rentals due to the impacts that these kinds of properties have on housing costs and local rents.

Just one more thing,  although I’m guessing you’ve probably already heard enough by now… that’s the sound of the secret whispers coming from Sellers who are a little surprised by the way the market is behaving.  Their refrain goes something like this:  “Where are all the Buyers? It’s been a week and I thought we’d have multiple-offers by now?”

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