Surreal Estate of Mind: Conspiracy or Confederacy of Dunces?

la_condition_humaine-magritteIn solidarity with the times, I’ve renamed today’s column Surreal Estate of Mind. Surreal is often used, when something real begins to take on an altered, disorienting, dream-like quality. You know. Like real estate. Like right now.

I don’t think Oswald acted alone. Drones and Chem Trails populate the sky. Fluoridation is a communist plot. Old, fat Republicans regularly get naked at Bohemian Grove. Freemasons? Bavarian Illuminati? The pyramid on the dollar bill? Yes. Yes. And more Yes! Sasquatch is alive and well and living wherever he wants. And to be completely honest …I think Eisenhower cut a deal with the aliens at a remote airplane hanger outside of Palm Springs in 1957.

It is all of the rest of life and the way things aren’t working in real estate that I’m not sure of…

Maybe it’s a little-known side-effect of the swine flu pandemic but I keep meeting respectable, hard-working, middle class people infected with an odd, feverish, lingering malaise that causes them to imagine they are deer in the headlights, standing nervously in the eye of a hurricane, waiting quietly for the proverbial other shoe to drop.

I may be a conspiracy buff but I’m not a conspiracy nut. I don’t really want to believe there is some giant, premeditated, not-so-secret, conspiracy going on between the Government and the Big Banks when it comes to controlling the hearts and minds of the collective real estate community. I’d prefer to think there weren’t any additional pairs of unseen hands tugging on puppet strings attached to the invisible hand of the marketplace. Or any Machiavellian plot trying to control and manipulate the entire system that controls and manipulates the entire system that I watch real people interact with and try to feel some modicum of control over in the real world of real estate.

So I’m hoping that some of you, with far greater experience than I – those with more formal training, studied insight, astute knowledge, honed perspective, rational answers, intuitive powers – will step up and shout me down. Because I want you to be my passionate and rabid de-bunkers. I really, truly, don’t want to believe that there is a conspiracy afoot trying to suspend my disbelief and convince me to accept the notion that all is well in real estate land and bank land and economy land. Please, tell me I’m wrong. Tell me I’ve got nothing to worry about. And that my clients have nothing to worry about. Make the surreal-ness of it all make sense just a little sense.

None of us, working in real estate, have ever been in this place before. This is undiscovered country. No map. No pre-packaged GPS system issued with each listing or each buyer’s pre-approval letter or with every escrow that gets opened. No soothing software voice-over ready to dole out directions on how to get there from here (wherever there is and wherever here is.)

So maybe the things I am seeing, aren’t really there at all. Maybe I’m making them up. Maybe they are just the usual suspects that are always around. Maybe they are mere figments of my imagination rather than the shadowy outlines of something more scary and nefarious lurking in my neck of these dark, dark woods. Maybe no one is responsible for the mysterious machinations I see people wrestling with daily. Maybe it’s just bio-rhythms. Or a ginormous confluence of bad hair days. Or Mercury in Retrograde. Exponentially. Up the yin yang.

All I know is, there are lots of trails leading off in different directions in these woods. I don’t know if any off them will eventually lead the real estate industry back home or not. For the time being, if you follow the scattered bread crumbs on any tangent you care to take, it all just gets curiouser and curiouser…

Why doesn’t it feel better in our guts while reaching for each small bone of good news thrown our way?…What happens when big banks control supply (shadow inventory) and demand (credit crunch) simultaneously at the same time?… If the conspirators achieved their immediate goal of heading off total collapse, when are the real changes and reforms in the system going to start?… If real estate is really getting that better, why would we consider paying everyone to buy a home by giving them all tax credits?…Let me repeat that – paying people to buy homes as a sales gimmick to sell the recovery!…Why not force the banks to release the huge inventory of homes locked in their foreclosure vaults?.. Wouldn’t more supply lower prices for first time buyers?…Who is going to pick up the slack and buy the loans the banks are making, when the Feds bow out soon, as they say they are planning to do?… Won’t interest rates go up?… In a jobless recovery, when incomes are necessary to qualify for full doc loans and interest rates go up and so many people who ought to be buyers already can’t afford the low-end clunkers that investors are paying all cash for…how will the market sustain itself?… How can there be recovery?…Where will the demand come from to meet the supply that eventually has to be released?

Inquiring minds want to know. Conspiracy? Or Confederacy of Dunces? Let me know what you know …

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2 thoughts on “Surreal Estate of Mind: Conspiracy or Confederacy of Dunces?

  1. Marlene Henderson

    Tom-
    I couldn’t have said it better my self. I have been reading so much about all the machinacions of what has caused this and my summation is rather sinister. Several valuable articles that you can find on my blog if you care too. Thanks for the good read and the reality of the goings on. I am always questioning my interpretations, it’s nice to read them from others well experienced in our business!

    http://tinyurl.com/lhzopz

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  2. tombrezsny Post author

    I think it is part of the way the spin meistering works…it keeps us guessing and always second-quessing the truths that our guts are telling us from inside. There was the pre-bubble world – where things were ramping up towards unfettered greed and profit taking. There was the bubble world – where no one wanted to mess with the sacred cash cow. Then, last fall, a year ago – it became paramount that the Feds find a way to stave off total collapse as the dominos started to fall. That has been their agenda ever since, to convince us all that we are no longer, so much on the brink. That everyday, things are getting better – even if they aren’t. They concentrated all the propped up banking power into the hands of 4 huge mega-banks doing the vast majority of mortgages, with the government as the guaranteed purchasers of those loans. What they haven’t done, beyond the orchestrated smoke and mirror show of selling us on a recovery that isn’t recovering, is make any fundamental changes or reforms in the system. Instead we get things like HVCC, appraisal management companies, tax credits for first time buyers – all window-dressing that in many ways makes things worse on the practical level of day to day real estate. New and unimproved as Rose Marie McNair says… And meanwhile, smart people step back, from the onslaught of hype and think…wait a minute…the pieces of this jigsaw puzzle are quite fitting together. There are some huge gaps. Thanks for your site…I am logging on to read your posts.

    Reply

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